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The following is the text of the speech that was my entry for the International Speech contest for Toastmasters; it won second place in the area-level competition this Spring.

There were two weeks in October 1962 when the Cold War between the United States and Soviet Union was in danger of becoming a very hot war indeed.    How hot?   Oh, a couple million degrees, because that’s the temperature in the center of a nuclear explosion.   You see, we almost had a nuclear war during the Cuban Missile Crisis.  At that time, John F. Kennedy was the president of the United States and Nikita Khrushchev was the Premier of the Soviet Union.

The United States had deployed nuclear missiles in Turkey that were capable of reaching Moscow, and so in a sort of global chess game, Khrushchev conceived of a plan to counter this by deploying nuclear missiles in Cuba that could be pointed towards the U.S.    

On October 14^th, 1962, their plans were found out.   A US spy plane on a reconnaissance mission over Cuba took pictures of seemed to be a missile base construction site.    

The CIA analyzed the photographs identified the objects as being medium-range ballistic missiles.   These were the rockets that would carry nuclear warheads to their targets in the U.S., but they did not see any warheads themselves.    So they assumed that the warheads had not yet been delivered, and that the Soviet Union would soon be sending ships to deliver them to Cuba. 

The President was informed of the existence of the missiles in Cuba and he held a meeting with members of the National Security Council, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the U.S. military.    There were three options discussed, diplomacy, a limited blockade to prevent the warheads from reaching Cuba, and a full-scale invasion. 

The Joint Chiefs of Staff unanimously agreed that the only option to remove the threat was a full-scale attack and invasion.   They figured that since the nuclear warheads were not yet in Cuba, the Soviets would not be able to stop the U.S.   

The National Security Council preferred the blockade option, which Kennedy accepted,  but the military was directed to prepared for the full invasion just in case. 

Meanwhile, on a beach in Miami, Florida there was a little boy who was playing with his grandfather.    He and his mother had flown from Chicago to spend a vacation there.    That night they saw President Kennedy on the television who announced that Cuba had missiles aimed at the U.S. and that the U.S. would launch a blockade around Cuba.  

The Soviet Union now gave its response, saying that it would view a blockade as an act of aggression and that their ships would defy the blockade.   The situation was now at a stalemate; the U.S. raised its defense level to condition red.   There is only condition beyond this, condition white, which just happens to be the color of the center of a nuclear explosion.   

That night, the boy who staying with his grandfather heard the voice of his father on the telephone calling to tell him that he loved him very much.    You see, the father was a reporter who knew the seriousness of the situation, and knew that his son was in a place that would very likely be a target of a nuclear attack in the case that war broke out.   He wanted to memorize the sound of his son’s voice in case he never heard it again.  

At 6:00 PM on the night of October 26^th, the State Department received by teletype a very long and emotional letter written by Khrushchev .   

“Mr. President, we and you ought not now to pull on the ends of a rope in which you have tied the knot of war.   Let us take measures to untie that knot.  We are ready for this.”

Tommy Thompson from the State Department,  a former ambassador to the Soviet Union, was sitting at the elbow of the President reading what he referred to as the soft, diplomatic message which he said had come directly from Khrushchev.    Just then, another message that came in that was more threatening and it was the message that had written by the hardliners in the Kremlin. 

The crucial question now was:   which message should the U.S. respond to, the soft message or the hard message?  

Tommy Thompson had knowledge of the Russian language, but even more importantly, because of his time as ambassador to the Soviet Union, he knew the Premier personally.   He could empathize with him, and knew exactly what the Premier was thinking.   He said that the Premier was being pushed by his hardliners into a military confrontation and he wanted desperately to find a diplomatic solution that would allow him to save not only the Cuban people from invasion, but to help him save face politically.   President Kennedy finally understood exactly how the Premier felt.  

President Kennedy listened to Tommy Thompson, and made a deal with the Soviet Union.   You pull out the missiles from Cuba, and we will remove ours from Turkey.    Khrushchev agreed, and the crisis was now over. 

In 1992, it was discovered that the CIA had made a mistake.    Remember how they had assumed there were no warheads in Cuba?   There were over 160 nuclear warheads already in Cuba.   So the blockade accomplished nothing.    But more importantly, if Kennedy had listened to the military, who based their strategic plans on what the CIA had told them, the invasion would have failed and nuclear war would have resulted.   

And I would not be standing here today.    Why?   Because that boy I mentioned in the story–was me.  

I urge you to see the documentary The Fog of War, the former Secretary of State Robert McNamara listed several lessons to be learned from the Cuban Missile Crisis, among them 1) be prepared to re-examine your reasoning, which you can see by the fact that the CIA made a mistake regarding the warheads, and 2) empathize with your enemy, which was the key to Tommy Thompson’s diplomatic breakthrough.

And to that, I would like to add a lesson of my own.  We can learn from Tommy Thompson and use the power of language to engage the language of power.   And it is the power of language, and its ability to be an window of understanding, and through that window, to be an instrument of peace, that has motivated me throughout my life, and it is what inspired me to join Toastmasters.

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On Friday morning, April 13th, 2012, John LaBonty’s spoke at the Costa Mesa Connectors networking group and gave his personal story of career transition.   He inspired the group with his talk on recognizing your own worth and on expanding your network.   I sincerely wanted to thank Debra for putting on the event; for those who did not make it to the event, Oscar Hernandez plans on making a video of John’s talk.  In the meanwhile, in gratitude for John’s talk and to Costa Mesa Connectors for putting on the event, I wanted to offer the group my blog post which summarized his talk.   I grouped his comments according to common themes and applied headlines to each of these themes.   This is my own personal reorganization of the talk I heard on Friday.

1.   Don’t apply for jobs—go out and find them

In today’s world of high unemployment, applying for jobs online is an extremely inefficient way of trying to get a job.   Although it seems counterintuitive, going out and finding a job through networking has a good probability of being a shorter path to employment.  But you will have to put in work for this method to succeed.   In discussing job searches with people at the Career Ministry, many people will put in somewhere on the order of 20 hours of job searching a week, but in reality, the vast majority only spend about half that.   In order to make networking through a job search to work, you will have to put in at least TWICE that, or 40 hours a week.   In other words, your job search needs to be your full-time job.

2. No cold calls—expand your network through referrals

Cold calling is an extremely inefficient way of generating any sales leads.   In your job search, he recommends rather using the core group of people you meet at a networking event to generate your first set of one-on-one meetings, and then using them to get referrals to generate the next set, and so on.

3.  Your face is the ultimate social medium

The means ways of communicating with people are

a) through e-mail (or nowadays through LinkedIn),

b) letter (less common these days),

c) telephone, and

d) in person, or face-to-face.

The further you go down the list, the more the effective the relationship will be.   Unfortunately, when people network, the most common are at the top of the list, not the bottom.   They seek to get 500+ “connections” on LinkedIn.  Don’t go for connections, go for relationships.   When you meet over 500+ in person, then you can truly say you have a network that is deep as it is wide.

4.  Qualify your referrals

To make sure that your referrals have a high probability of agreeing to meet with you, qualify them when you request them in the first place.   When you ask for a referral, ask the person “who is the most successful person you know?”   Then ask the person how well he or she knows the referral:   on a scale from 1 to 10, with 1 meaning you exchanged business cards at a networking event, and 10 meaning that they are your best friend, how would you rate that person?    If the person responds that they are less than, say, a 5, then ask them if they someone with whom they have an even better relationship with.   By getting to the people the person knows the best, you will be increasing your chance of getting a “yes” from the referral based on the strength of that relationship.

5.  Put your fears to work—against each other

If you’re afraid of going out and meeting people, because you may face rejection, or you have other issues connected with being an introvert, then realize that you are NORMAL.  If you are honest with yourself, you will realize that you have a larger fear, which is the fear of not being able to support yourself and the fear of being irrelevant in today’s world of work.   Use this larger fear as a motivation to conquer your smaller fear of speaking in public and get out there and meet people.   Take that smaller fear with you on the road, but keep moving.

6. How to prepare for a one-to-one meeting

It takes about 30 seconds, because all you need to ask are two basic questions:  a) How can I help you? and b) Tell me your story.   By focusing on how you can help them, you are not coming across as needy, but as someone who is there to help solve their problems, whatever they may be.   If you ask them about themselves, they will open up and let you know what issues are important to them.   You will come across as personable and likeable, because you have an interest in common:   the life story of the person you are sitting down with.

7. Go to the meeting in “open” mode

No matter what your personal needs and wishes are, you need to have them take a back seat when you are networking, so that you can project calmness and confidence.   By having the right attitude and asking the right questions as mentioned above, you will conduct the meeting in “open” mode.   This means that you are geared towards giving them ideas which may help them, because if the relationship is established, they will want to turn around and do the same for you.   If you go in there projecting that the most important thing on your mind is that you need something from them, that may put them into “closed” mode and the relationship will not be as productive.

8. Practice quality control over your network

To do this you need to develop a series of metrics (# of networking events/week, # of one-to-one meetings, etc.) that you keep track of in a matrix that can be printed out in convenient form and placed in a prominent place, like over your computer or on your refrigerator.   And to guarantee your success, you need an accountability partner whom you can meet at least once a week to go over your progress and analyze what worked in the previous work and what didn’t.   These quality control ideas work in project management; just consider your job search as a project that you apply the same techniques to.

9.  Meet with EVERYBODY and follow up after meetings

If you have connections with people at networking events, you will be making a subjective assessment about who is most likely to be able to help you.   Put those preconceived notions, and try to meet if at all feasible with EVERYBODY with whom you exchanged business cards and had a chance to speak to.   There will be “hidden gems” among them whom you did not expect to be in a position to be of help to you, but who may turn out to be one of your valuable allies on your path to success.   Also, by reaching out to others rather than waiting for them to reach out to you, you will sit down with those who have the hardest time breaking through their social barriers, and be doing the most amount of good in the process.

After the meeting, follow up with a telephone call, or if the person is a baby boomer, a personal handwritten note.   These things mean a lot to those in the generation that remembers such courtesies and finds them all-too rare in our digital world.   E-mail if you must, but make sure the person knows that you valued the time they took out of their busy schedule to speak to you.

10. If you find yourself falling, DIVE!

Going out on a job search is something which is not pleasant, and is very uncomfortable for people, because they need to encounter and overcome their own fears and limitations in order to accomplish it.   Just say “yes” to it—if it is uncomfortable, then MAKE it comfortable by saying to yourself that, rather than looking for a job, you are trying to build a network, and each day say to yourself, “today I am going to make a new friend!”   The worst thing that can possibly happen is that, despite doing everything that was recommended above, they turn out not to like you and will be unwilling to help you.  If that happens, then THEY have failed, not you.

You have to be convinced that you were given certain talents and qualities that make you valuable.   Walk up to the person you are to meet with the conviction that it is the privilege of a lifetime to be who you are,  but you create the relationship by asking for the privilege of knowing them better and letting them know they are valuable because YOU are willing to help THEM.

That’s how it starts—keep working on it so that each night, you can face your conscience and your loved ones and say you did all you could that day to expand your network.   Let God do the rest!

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On April 14, 2012, there will be a new round of talks held in Istanbul, Turkey regarding Iranian’s nuclear program.   There is guarded optimism about the talks, but there is also concern that an additional demand stated by the US last weekend may make upcoming negotiations more difficult.

1.  General issue

Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and has the right under international law to enrich uranium for commercial and research purposes.   However, enriching uranium can also be used for building a nuclear weapon, and some Western countries suspect that this is the true purpose of Iran’s nuclear program.   The talks between Iran and the so-called P5+1 (U.S., France, Britain, Russia, China and Germany) will begin Saturday in Turkey in order to ease tensions regarding this program.

2.   Iranian compromise on enrichment level

According to a report from CNN (http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/09/world/meast/iran-nuclear-talks/index.html), Iran has suggested it is willing to compromise regarding the amount and the level of uranium enrichment.

The level of enrichment of natural uranium for the purpose of nuclear power is typically between 3-5% ²³⁵U (http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/fact-sheets/enrichment.html); this is referred to as low-enriched uranium or LEU.   Uranium used in nuclear weapons contained 85% or more ²³⁵U, and this is referred to as highly enriched uranium or HEU.   The problem is that Iran is enriching uranium to a 20% concentration of ²³⁵U.   This 20% level just so happens to be the dividing line between LEU and HEU, and this ambiguity has contributed to the international concern about the true motives of Iran’s program.

Iran has said it is willing to reduce the level of enrichment from 20% to 3.5%, which would definitely put its uranium in the LEU category, and perhaps reduce that concern.

3.  US asks for dismantling of nuclear enrichment facility

However, the Obama administration added an additional demand that Iran immediately close and ultimately dismantle Iran’s uranium-enrichment facility at Fordo (http://ow.ly/afbue), according to an article on April 7^th in the New York Times.  Paul Pillar, in his April 8 blog post at the National Interest called “Hostages in Iran” (http://nationalinterest.org/blog/paul-pillar/hostages-iran-6749) says that the reason why the US is making this request is because this new facility is relatively invulnerable to air attack, which is presumably why the Iranians placed it there.  According to Paul Pillar, in making a demand which effectively would make Iran more vulnerable to airstrikes by Israel, the US has taken a tougher bargaining position before the commencement of negotiations.

What are the possibilities of the negotiations succeeding given this additional hurdle to be overcome?    If Iran agrees to close the facility in Fordo, the nuclear facilities in central Iran in Natanz have more than enough capacity to keep the nuclear program going, so Iran might agree to the dismantling of the Fordo nuclear enrichment facility in addition to its agreeing to limit its level of uranium enrichment to 3.5%.   However, it would probably do so only if there was an agreement on dismantling some of the sanctions that Iran faces from the West, according to an analysis by Brian Murphy in the Associated Press (http://ow.ly/afxCh).

A complete dismantlement of the nuclear enrichment program would not be acceptable to the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini-Khamenei and the clerical conservatives, who are solidly behind the nuclear program (see Economist Intelligence Unit Webinar on Iran sanctions, summarized in https://4squareviews.com/2012/04/09/iran-sanctions-just-right-or-a-step-too-far/).

4.  Guarded optimism

The world seems to be guardedly optimistic about the upcoming negotiations.  This can be seen reflected in the price of a barrel of crude oil, which according to this Associated Press article (http://www.wsbtv.com/news/ap/energy/oil-climbs-above-102/nMW7j/) has jumped from $75 in October to a high of $110 last month based on concerns by investors regarding a possible military attack on Iran by Israel.   Optimism regarding the talks has caused the price of crude oil to slide to $104, and “If negotiations were to succeed and some acceptable compromise achieved, the energy markets would breathe a collective sigh of relief and prices would decline,” said Richard Soultanian of NUS Consulting in that same AP article.

Of course, if the negotiations do not succeed, the prices will increase beyond the $110 peak that occurred in March.   So it is important to pay close attention to the upcoming talks this weekend, which are most likely the opening bid in negotiations that may last for months.

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This Economist Intelligence Unit webinar was presented by the Regional Director for Africa, Pratibha (Pat) Thaker on Wednesday, April 4^th, 2012.   The following are my notes from the Q&A session held after the webinar.

1.  What is prospect for increased regional cooperation in the future?

Regional trade is increasing; prospects are good for future, provided progress is made in infrastructure, regulation, and political commitment by member countries.

2.  To what extent has current prosperity in Africa been built on current commodities supercycle?

To be sure, Nigeria, Angola, and Ghana are the key drivers of continental growth related to oil, and this growth has been stimulated by the commodity price bubble.  However, there has been a diversification into non-oil and natural-resource based growth in the past decade as well.   This diversification has been supported by governmental reforms and private development.

3.  Why is China so heavily invested in Africa compared to Western countries?   Is it driven by oil and natural resource consumption?

China is an important part of Africa’s economic story today.   China’s investment in oil and natural resources has gone on for the past 14 years.   It is one of the largest investors in every region of Africa.   Even the last global downturn in 2008 did not affect this relationship.   However, since 2008 the investment in manufacturing has tremendously increased.   The investment in natural resources is driving investment in infrastructure and the investment in manufacturing is driving investment in skills.

4.  What are the top investment opportunities in Africa?

There are investment opportunities in infrastructure, natural resources, and services (health care, retail, and finance).   The fastest growing opportunities (besides natural resources) are health care, retail, and consumer goods based on the increasing level of urbanization and the growth in the middle class.

5.   What are the long-term challenges for Africa with respect to politics?

Demographics is the biggest challenge:   rising young population will have increasing economic expectations of growth, jobs, and quality of life.  If governments and corporations cannot deliver on these expectations, that will be a huge challenge.

6.  What are the effects of human rights concerns on economic development?

Treatment of local labor issues is important for governments; for example, in the mining industry in Zambia, this was one of the key electoral issues in the last election.   Treatment of local workers has been brought up by various international human rights groups.   Governments are concerned; they need investment and money to make sure development takes place, and they do not have organized unions like in South Africa, but they face pressure from the people not to tolerate abusive treatment of local workers.

7.   Has there been a movement from microfinance to more formal banking structures?

The opportunity for growth in banking is large:  as economies grow, services sectors grow, and most of the people in Africa do not keep money in banks.   Microfinance is growing, but won’t be replaced by traditional banking for at least the next 5 years.

8.  What is the prospect for long-term political stability in Africa?

There are countries where political risks are high, but in general there has been a change in quality of leadership, with fewer coups.   There has been a greater consistency of government; and improvement in governance.  Ghana is good example of how good governance has shown benefits to economy.   However, corruption remains a problem across most of the country.  It remains a major deterrent for investment.   The most unstable area of Africa is probably Somalia, which is a risk to all of North Africa, particularly Kenya.   Regional security in North Africa is an ongoing concern.

9.  How are governments increasing the skill level of the workforce?

Quality of labor market depends on quality of education and training.  Besides infrastructure, the lack of a highly skilled workforce is of most concern to investors, particularly those in manufacturing.   Governments are concerned about this because they want to attract investment, and therefore are allocate increasing amounts of money to improve education.

10.  How has investment in agriculture improved?

It has been growing, but from a very low base.   Only 10% of the agricultural land is being cultivated at present.   Ethiopia is an example of a country where investment in agriculture has paid off.

11.  How are governments developing a tax mix between income, corporate and indirect taxes?

As part of reform programs from IMF and World Bank in exchange for debt relief in 2007 and 2008, better fiscal machinery was required.   Much of the fiscal revenue was dependent on taxation from natural resources.   This will have to shift to corporate taxes, but the shift will not happen overnight; it will take a decade.

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This Economist Intelligence Unit webinar was presented by the EIU Regional Director for Africa, Pratibha (Pat) Thaker on .   The following are my notes from the webinar.

1.  Introduction: Growth forecast optimistic

The continent of Africa is growing faster than any other place in the world other than India and China.   The fastest growing economies in the continent are Angola (10.3%), Nigeria, and South Africa.  Most of the other countries are expected to grow quickly as well; there are some exceptions such as Zimbabwe and Swaziland (-1 and 3% growth, respectively), but these are in the minority.

2.  What is driving growth in Africa

a.  External demand from China and India, particularly for natural resources such as oil (Nigeria and Angola) and minerals (Tanzania).   This demand is keeping commodity prices high, which has fueled much of Africa’s growth recently.   Oil has been discovered in Uganda recently and in Kenya as well.

b.  Domestic demand driven by increasing urbanization and rising disposable incomes.   This is true of emerging service sectors such as telecommunications and banking, but in traditional sectors such as agriculture (Ethiopia, Rwanda).

c.  Political changes have brought stability and growth.   Improved economic management after the debt relief in 2006 and 2007 has led to increased capital inflow.

d.  Demographics:   Africa has the youngest and most populated market in the world.    More than half of population is under 24.   By 2050, Africa’s population will be 2 billion, greater than the 1.6 billion in India or 1.4 billion in China.   Urbanization is rapid: 40% of Africans live in cities; lower than China but higher than India, but by 2030, urbanization will increase to 63% of Africa.   Meanwhile, the middle class is growing and families are starting to have fewer children.   10 years ago the average African woman had 6 children; today she has 5 (compared to the average of 1.7 in Asia).    The growing middle class will create demand for schools and utilities.

3.  Foreign investment in Africa

Foreign direct investment peaked in 2008, dipped in 2009 and 2010 in line with global recession, but has quickly picked up again.   The top three deals that foreign companies have recently made in Africa are the following:

a.  Bharti Airtel (India) buys Zain’s African assets for $10.7B, which overnight allowed it to do business in over 15 African countries.

b.  NTT (Japan) completes takeover of South Africa’s Dimension Data for $3.3B

c.  Wal-Mart (US) buys 51% of SA retailer Massmart for $2.4B after finally winning approval from the competition authorities who were concerned about trade union opposition.   Wal-Mart wants to use South Africa as the gateway to the rest of Africa.

Most African markets are open in telecommunications and banking, but there are some exceptions:  Ethiopia does not allow foreign direct investment in either sector.

4.  Regional trade is growing

There are four main trading blocs in Africa:

a.  SADC (S)

b.  Comesa (SE)—links Egypt to Africa

c.  EAC (E)—integrating the fastest of all blocs; common market introduced in July 2010

d. Ecowas

A common African bloc unifying all four regional blocs will take several years to materialize.   A single currency has been proposed by 2012, but will probably take until 2015 to complete.   A single currency has been proposed by 2012, but will probably take until 2015 to complete.

5.  Key obstacles to foreign investment

1.  Cost and difficulty of setting up a business—varies from country to country:  takes 2 days in Rwanda, 18 months in Kenya, and hard to get business visa in Angola.   Mauritius, South Africa, and Botswana are the 3 easiest locations for doing business in Africa.

2.  Skill shortages, labor market restrictions

3.  High taxes and complex tax systems

4.  Dealing with licenses and property registration

5.  Contract investment

Overall the top worries of investors are the infrastructure and skill level of workers, but improvements are going on in these areas.   In fact, investments in infrastructure and education are some of the most promising areas for growth.

6.  Political liberalization

After Arab Spring last year, what are prospects of an “African Spring”?

Underlying conditions are similar:
a.  Authoritarian governments & geriatric rulers

b.  high unemployment & widespread poverty

c.  corruption & excessive regulations

But there are key differences between Africa and Arab countries:

a.  Larger rural populations in SSA

b.  Less extensive use of the Internet & social networking

c.  Smaller middle class

d.  Less organized opposition groups

e.  Slightly better democratic record

For the above reasons, Pat Thaker thinks it is unlikely an Arab Spring willspread into SSA (sub-Saharan Africa); however, there may be sporadic food and fuel related protests.  However, over the medium term, political pressure on governments to deliver goods and services to people will be ongoing due to the demographic pressures mentioned above.

7.  Conclusion

In short, there has been an increased global understanding of the tremendous potential for growth in Africa in the next 5 or 10 years.

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A Economist Intelligence Unit webinar was held on March 22, 2012 by Edward Bell, their Middle East/North Africa analyst.  What follows are my notes from question & answer session that was held after the webinar.

1.   How much is cost to Iran of sanctions offset by increased revenue from higher oil prices due to rumors of attacks against them?

This was my question, by the way, and Edward Bell said that it was a good one.   He said that we would be shooting ourselves in the foot, so to speak, if the effect of the sanctions and the rumors of attacks had the effect of increasing Iran’s overall oil revenue.  However, the latest round of sanctions by EU by restricting Iran’s access to the international clearing mechanism SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) are intended to prevent Iran from even trading oil on the international oil market.   For that reason, they go beyond the sanctions that were put in effect previously by the UK and the US.

2.  What are the countries in the Middle East which are most affected by the sanctions against Iran.

Dubai, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Saudi Arabia are most at economic risk.  If their counterparty is doing business with Iran, the liability has now shifted to them and they will have to have to do due diligence to prevent this.   They can’t get letters of credit, so Iran needs to pay them up front in cash for shipments.  In addition, they ship through the Strait of Hormuz which puts their oil shipments at risk in the conflict.

If sanctions create more severe pressure on Iran, the risk could spread to Lebanon and Iraq.  Iran may claim oil fields that are in Iraqi territory, or Iran may activate Hezbollah in Lebanon to fire rockets into Israel, which would in turn cause a direct assault against Iran by Israel.

3.  Can the Iranian people turn against regime and cause regime change?

The Iranian government is characterizing sanctions not as a part of negotiation, but simply as punishment against Iranian people.   The nuclear program is quite popular among the Iranian people at present and the government tries to make the people think they are doing what is best for them.   There is no electable voice of dissent in Iran, and the regime is quite capable of putting down any popular protest in the same brutal way that they did in 2009 against the so-called Green Movement.

4.   What is probability of unilateral attack by Israel by May?

Security establishment in both US and Israel say nuclear weapons program is not being pursued at present.   Netanyahu will not allow Iran to either develop a nuclear weapon or even have the capability of developing a nuclear weapon.  The only way to get that last option would be to have Iran give up its nuclear energy program entirely.   If the negotiations being proposed by the US are not successful, the only alternative short of a unilateral attack would be for the US and Israel to accept the possibility of Iran having the capability of having a nuclear weapon at some point in the future.   US may be able to accept, but it remains uncertain whether Israel is capable of accepting this.

If Israel is impatient enough that they unilaterally attack Iran, the head of IMF has said oil prices worldwide could increase 30-40% if Iran’s oil were removed from the market.   Also Iran is threatening to not allow other oil to go through Strait of Hormuz which would further increase oil prices.   The most immediate effect in EU would be those countries most dependent on Iranian oil, which just happen to be some of the countries which are weakest financially (Greece, Spain, and Italy).

Edward Bell thinks that one of the purposes of the EU sanctions are meant to give these countries time to get oil from other sources such as Libya or Iraq.

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A Economist Intelligence Unit webinar was held on March 22, 2012 by Edward Bell, their Middle East/North Africa analyst.   Here is my summary of the webinar.

1.  Purpose of sanctions

European Union made an unprecedented move in mid-March by imposing sanctions on banks that have financial transactions with Iran, matching sanctions already imposed by the US on companies that do with business with Iran.  The purpose of the sanctions was to put political pressure on Iran to enter negotiations regarding their nuclear program.   The US government and the Israeli government claim their nuclear program is geared towards eventual production of nuclear weapons, but Iran claims it is for nuclear energy only.   The purpose of the webinar is to analyze what effect the sanctions are having on Iran’s economy, and to analyze whether on a political level they are likely to succeed in bringing Iran back to the negotiating table.

2.  Economic impact of sanctions on Iran

The economic effects in Iran have been severe—since a year ago:

• Inflation has gone from 10% in 2010 to 23% following removal of subsidies such as heating fuel by government
• Rial dollar exchange rate has gone from 10,500 to 12,260, will go up to 18000. That’s the official rate; actual exchange rate is 50% higher, up to 23000.   In practical terms for the average Iranian, a flight to Dubai which used to cost the equivalent of $2000 is now $4000.

Iran sends its oil exports to China (17%), Japan (10%), India (10%), Turkey (7%), and South Korea (6%).   The US has tried to use its political leverage on the countries it has the more influence with (Japan and South Korea) and has made a deal with them not to press sanctions against their countries if they make a sincere effort to limit their imports of Iranian oil.   Officially China and India have not made concessions to the US on this point, but unofficially their consumption of Iranian oil has reduced.   Of course, this reduction in oil imports has had the effect of increasing oil prices.   It is estimated that $0.25 of the cost of gasoline at the pump can be said to be due to the sanctions.

3.  Iranian response to sanctions:  strategic

The Iranian reactions have been negative:   there were attacks on the British Embassy in Iran last November when UK imposed the first financial sanctions.   Threats have come from the Iranian government that if attacked, they would shut down the Straits of Hormuz.  Iranians have been doing war gaming, and in response US has been doing its own war gaming, and sending aircraft carriers through the Strait in response to show that they intend to keep it open.

4. Iranian response to sanctions:  political

The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Hosseini-Khamenei and the clerical conservatives are solidly behind the nuclear program.   The conservatives represented by the President Ahmadinejad were probably more willing to go to the negotiating table, but at the beginning of March there was a parliamentary election where the clerical conservatives and other supporters of the Supreme Leader Khamenei gained a majority in Parliament, and effectively sidelined Ahmadinejad.   Any opposition like that of the Green Movement that protested in the streets in 2009 has been squeezed out of the political system.   The only potential opposition to the nuclear program was Ahmadinejad whose allies were against the theocratic dogma of the clerical conservatives.   However, he now faces an unfriendly parliament which may either impeach him or wait until the next election, where the next President will certainly acquiesce to the wishes of the Supreme Leader who as mentioned is firmly behind the nuclear program.

If sanctions make things so bad for ordinary people that they riot in the streets, the current government has shown it is perfectly willing to use violence to suppress any such protests, as evidenced in their response to the Green Movement of 2009.   Note that the intelligence estimates from senior figures in the US and Israel security services have stated that Iran is not currently pursuing a nuclear weapons program; this pronouncement gives the clerical conservatives some confidence in their being able to pursue their present course.

Summary

Although the sanctions against Iran have had considerable economic effect, they have not yet been able to translate into political pressure on the Iranian government to come back to the negotiating table regarding their nuclear program.   In fact, one could say the sanctions have actually had the opposite effect of strengthening the power of the clerical conservatives.

There were several questions from the audience regarding what the effect would be on the region if Israel were to unilaterally attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.    These will covered in a separate blog post tomorrow.

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I watched the video by David McWilliams called Punk Economics (http://ow.ly/8S2nk) where he laid out his case against the austerity measures demanded by Germany of Greece.    He also talks about the a cultural divide in Europe which adds to the acrimony of the debate on austerity vs. debt-forgiveness.    At the two-minute mark of the video, he pointed out that most of the debtor countries (Italy, Spain, Ireland, and Portugal) are Catholic.    In the Catholic religion, debt is equated morally with guilt, which is dealt with through the ritual of confession.    This involves an act of repentance which leads to forgiveness and a sense of starting over.   These countries are of the mindset that there will be a short-term financial equivalent of penance which will be accompanied by debt forgiveness.    In their eyes, the lender and the borrower are both considered liable for the creation of the problem, and will thus both be required to sacrifice to solve it.

In the Protestant mindset applied by Germany, however, the borrower or debtor is considered the sole sinner in this matter, and must be punished in the equivalent of “eternal hellfire and damnation” through years of austerity.   However, in reality this turns out to be counterproductive, like the debtor’s prison of old.   He points out that Ireland, which has been under conditions of austerity for three years now, is now less able to pay back the debt than before.

Whether you agree with David McWilliams macroeconomic prescription or not, I think it is important to see how cultural values impinge on the economic debate if you are to gain a full understanding of the negotiations going on in Europe.

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The following summary of the Integral model is an adaptation of a speech I gave at the Toastmasters club on January 24^th, 2012 based on the introductory material in lesson 1 of the Essential Integral course.

The purpose of this post is to explain the Integral Model of human consciousness which acts as a map of the mind.   The Integral model contains five elements:  quadrants, states, types, lines and stages.

1.  Quadrants

Quadrants are the ways that consciousness views the world.  All natural languages have one grammatical feature in common, which is pronouns.  The pronoun “I” represents the internal part of my consciousness which looks out on the external world and sees “you”.  So consciousness splits the world into the internal and the external.

If I talk to you, a relationship may be formed in which case the pronoun shifts to “we”.  So consciousness also splits the world into the individual and the group.

These two dimensions, internal/external and individual/group, when crossed form a quadrant.  The quadrants are important because in order to solve a problem you need to look it from the standpoint of as many quadrants as possible.  For example, if I want to change a habit of mine, I need to change not only my internal motivation, but I also have to match it with a change in external behavior.  If I want to solve a problem in society, I have to look at the internal values of the society (its culture) as well as its external relationships (its politics or economics).

So those are the different ways consciousness sees the world.

2.  States

You are all familiar with states of consciousness.  There is the waking state, the dream state, and the state of dreamless sleep.  Other terms for these in the Integral model are “gross”, “subtle”, and “causal”, respectively.  An interesting thing happens, however, when these states of mind start to blend together.  An artist is someone who in taps into the unconscious or dream state of imagery while in the waking state, and someone who meditates is trying to bring that sense of calmness from the state of dreamless step into the waking state.  Every once in a while, when we’re seeing something like the beauty of a sunset, we get into an altered state of consciousness that the psychologist Abraham Maslow referred to as a peak experience, and is sometimes referred to as a “nondual” state in the Integral model.  This state of consciousness is a lot rarer, but anyone has access to it under the right circumstances.

3.  Types

States of consciousness are the short-term patterns of the mind, like its weather, if you will.   If states of mind are the weather, then the type of consciousness is its climate, or long-term pattern.   The simplest example of a type of consciousness is “male” and “female”.  I don’t need to tell you that it is not just biology but psychology that differentiates the two.  Men may be from Mars and women may be from Venus, but they both have to peacefully coexist right here on Earth.   Knowing the difference between male and female psychological patterns helps one to avoid misunderstandings.

4.  Lines

Different people have different abilities, and these form along different lines of development.  Our culture tends to emphasize cognitive development, which is the kind of thing you measure when you are taking an SAT test:  primarily mathematical/logical and linguistic ability.  Howard Gardner of Harvard University developed his theory of multiple intelligences, which take into account other lines of development such as artistic or athletic abilities.   Recently, Daniel Goleman in his books on Emotional Intelligence has shown how the ability to handle relationships is a key factor in success both in school and later on in the workplace.  Finally, moral development is another line of development which shows how people react to others and society in general in matters dealing with ethics.

The practical thing to realize here is that just because you may be highly developed along one line, let’s say, cognitively, that doesn’t mean you are highly developed along the other lines.   Developing the other lines will make you a more balanced individual.   This also has practical implications for team building, because it is often beneficial to have people on your team that are highly developed along the lines that you yourself may be deficient in.

5.  Stages

Finally, the last part of the integral model is that of levels or stages.  I can explain this by using an example from the Toastmasters organization I belong to.  When you want to become an effective speaker at Toastmasters, you have to go through several stages of development.  There is the Competent Communication level of achievement, which you complete by doing 10 speeches, and then there are the advanced level of achievements, the Advanced Communicator Bronze, Silver, and Gold level, after which you can reach the level of being a Distinguished Toastmaster, the highest level of development within the Toastmasters club.   It  is done in a process that is both step-by-step and sequential, meaning you can’t skip steps.

Humans progress along lines of development in stages in a way that is also step-by-step and sequential.  The details of development states can be complicated.   However, to illustrate with a relatively simple example, the stages of moral development can be boiled down to three major stages: pre-conventional, conventional, and post-conventional.  Pre-conventional defines morality as “what’s it in for me?”, and the self is the standard for defining morals.   Conventional morality says “what is right and wrong?” and it centers on the society, which is considered the arbiter of moral standards.  Post-conventional morality says “what are the principles at stake?” and it centers on more universal principles which apply to human beings in general, and not just the ones in a particular society or group.   If people develop morally beyond the pre-conventional stage (and not everybody does), they go to the conventional stage first, and then the post-conventional stage; they don’t skip from pre-conventional to post-conventional morality.

Conclusion

People are like snowflakes; no two of them are exactly alike, although they are fundamental built on the same basic model.   Integral Model is a map of the mind which helps account for a lot of the human variation you will encounter when you deal with other people or try to solve problems.  Being aware of these dimensions will allow you to be a more skillful communicator, because you will be able to tailor your message to the “wavelength” of the person you are talking to.

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The Integral Approach is a way of mapping the various dimensions of human consciousness onto a framework which can then be used as a common reference point for discussing various issues.

Example 1:  Dieting

Let’s take the example of someone who wants to try to lose weight as a New Year’s resolution.

Many people take the approach of a restrictive diet by simply cutting calories and using their willpower to maintain that diet.  As Bill Phillips puts it in chapter 3 of his book Transformation, it’s like trying to hold your breath underwater.  No matter how much willpower you have, your body’s need for oxygen will overcome your resolve.  You will eventually surface and start gasping for air.

In a similar way, if you try to cut calories without consuming a sufficient amount of essential nutrients, your body’s need for those nutrients will also overcome your resolve.  You will eventually start eating and when you do, your built-up hunger will most likely cause you to overeat.  So just paying attention to psychology and willpower won’t work.  You have to know something about nutrition and how the body’s physiology works in order to make dieting effective.

The Transformation approach to weight loss by Bill Phillips combines attention to psychology plus knowledge of the body’s physiology to create an effective weight-loss program.  Or to put it in terms of the Integral Approach, it succeeds where most diets fail because it takes an integral approach of the internal (psychological) and external (physiological) factors involved.

Example 2:  Obesity Epidemic in U.S

What if you decided to make it your life’s work to help an entire society lose weight rather than simply a single individual?   Bill Phillips not only wants to help individuals lose weight through his Transformation program, but he also wants to work on creating solutions to the societal problem in the United States where 70% of the entire population is overweight.

To understand the roots of this societal problem, you have to approach the cultural factors as well as the political and economic factors that contribute to it.   In other words, you have to take an integral approach of the internal (cultural) and external (political and economic) factors.

The difference between the two examples shows the same problem of being overweight but related to an individual (singular) vs. a group (plural).  These two dimensions, the  internal vs. external and the singular vs. plural create a total of four quadrants or ways of viewing an issue.

And that is where I get the title of this blog called “4squareviews”.

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