World Economic Forum (#WEF) Global Risk Report 2013–Overview #WEF

The World Economic Forum’s Risk Response Network or RRN has come out with Global Risk Report 2013, which can be viewed and downloaded on their website

1.   Methodology of Report

The report discusses global risks using the following methodology:

a)  Identify global risks, which are risks that are global in geographic scope, cross-industry relevance, uncertainty as to how and when they will occur, and high levels of economic and/or social impact.

b)  Categorize the global risks into five Risk Categories: economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological.

c)  For each Risk Category, rank each risk according to likelihood and severity.

d)  Using the ranking, identify the risks of greatest systemic importance as the Centers of Gravity for each of each Risk Category.

e)  Identify Critical Connectors which are risks that are connected to the multiple Centers of Gravity, and thus link all global risks into one coherent system.

The result is a map which shows the ecology of global risks and how they are all interrelated.

2.   Overview–Contents of Report

The first part of the report discusses the most serious risks from a standpoint of both likelihood and impact.

The second part of the report consists of three case studies which focus on special categories of risk, and one special report on mitigating global risk.

Case 1:   Testing Economic and Environmental Resilience

This case explores the risks due to climate change.

Case 2:  Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World

This case explores the risks due to the spread of disinformation on the Internet.

Case 3:   The Dangers of Hubris on Human Health

This case explores the risks due to the rise of antibiotic-resistant bacteria.

The third part of the report shifts from reporting on what the global risks are to how to mitigate them–this is for decision makers the most important part of the report.

Special Report—Resilience:  Preparing for Future Shocks

This case explores he Importance of building national resilience to global risks.

The fourth part of the report discusses “X factors”.   In addition to the exploration of risks that are considered to be the “known knowns”, there are emerging risks that need to put on a watch list called “X factors” which represent the known unknowns.

I will be going through the report in several blog posts to discuss the methodologies, the findings, and the recommendations of this report.


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