6th Edition PMBOK® Guide: Process 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis: Outputs


Here are the outputs to the process 11.4 Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis:  hey are all project documents which give quantitative results regarding the overall project risk exposure, as well as a probabilistic analysis of the project.    In addition, there is a prioritized list of individual project risks, the start of a trend analysis in quantitative risk which will be updated throughout the project, and a set of recommended risk responses which sets you up for the next process 11.5 Plan Risk Responses.

Although the outputs focus on the overall project risks, various individual risks are highlighted that pose the greatest threat or opportunity to achieving the key objectives.

11.4.3  Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis:   Outputs

  • Assessment of overall project risk exposure
    • Chances of project success, measured by the probability that the project will achieve its key objectives (deadline or other interim milestones, required cost target, etc.)
    • Degree of variability remaining within the project, indicated by the range of possible project outcomes (related to the largest individual risks that are indicated by the sensitivity analysis tool/technique).
  • Detailed probabilistic analysis of the project
    • Amount of contingency reserve needed to provide a specified level of confidence
    • Identification of individual project risks or other sources of uncertainty that have the greatest effect on the project critical path.
    • Major drivers of overall project risk.
  • Prioritized list of individual project risks–using sensitivity analysis, you identify those project risks that pose the greatest opportunity to the project.
  • Trends in quantitative risk analysis results–you take this same quantitative risk analysis output and update it during the project if there are any changes either in probability or impact of the largest individual project risks.   In this way, you can chart the trends in quantitative risk analysis results.   For example, if a major individual risk is not triggered during the project, then this has an effect of lowering the overall project risk because that individual risk was a big contributor to the total risk.   Or if the probability of a risk increases, this may have an effect of increasing the overall project risk.   The trends may show where it is important to spend the effort in developing risk responses.
  • Recommended risk responses–based on the results of the quantitative risk analysis, the risk report may present suggested responses to the level of overall individual risk exposure or key individual project risks, thus giving valuable input to the next process

The next post cover will the inputs for process 11.5 Plan Risk Responses, which come from not only the 4 other planning processes for risk management, but from documents related to other project management knowledge areas.

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