1. INTRODUCTION
In my previous posts on the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report 2016, I have concentrated on
- the methodology of the report (corresponding to the Plan Risk Management process of Project Management),
- the identification of risks (corresponding to the Identify Risks process of Project Management)
- the qualitative analysis of risks (corresponding to the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process of Project Management)
- the identification of regional risk trends
The next topic I went to get to in the report is related to ecology of risks in time, meaning those risks which have changed the most in terms of impact and/or likelihood since the last Global Risk Report in 2015.
2. 10 Most Changing Global Risks
The likelihood and impact of 29 risks were rated on a 1 to 7 scale based on the Global Risks Perception Survey done in the Fall of 2015.
Based on Figure 1.1 of the Global Risk Report 2016, those 10 risks that had the largest change in likelihood and/or impact from 2015 to 2016 were as follows:
| # | Risk | Change in Likelihood | Change in Impact |
| 1. | Large-scale voluntary migration (Societal) | 5.1 → 5.7 (+.6) | 4.6 → 5.2 (+.6) |
| 2. | Profound social instability (Societal) | 4.9 → 5.1 (+.2) | 4.8 → 5.0 (+.2) |
| 3. | Deflation (Econ) | 4.3 → 4.5 (+.2) | 4.3 → 4.5 (+.2) |
| 4. | Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation (Environmental) | 5.3 → 5.4 (+.1) | 5.1 → 5.3 (+.2) |
| 5. | Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (Environmental) | 4.6 → 4.7 (+.1) | 5.0 → 5.1 (+.1) |
| 6. | Energy price shock (Econ) | 4.5 → 4.7 (+.2) | 5.1 → 5.1 (+0) |
| 7. | Spread of infectious diseases (Societal) | 4.4 ← 4.1 (-.4) | 5.2 ← 5.0 (-.2) |
| 8. | Interstate conflict (Geopolitical) | 5.6 ← 5.4 (-.2) | 5.1 ← 4.9 (-.1) |
| 9. | Critical information structure breakdown (Technological) | 4.2 ← 4.2 (-0) | 5.1 ← 4.8 (-.3) |
| 10. | State collapse or crisis (Geopolitical) | 5.3 ← 5.1 (-.2) | 4.4 ← 4.4 (=0) |
Here are some things to notice about these risks.
The largest movement of risks are the societal risks of Large-Scale Involuntary Migration and Profound Social Instability, and these also happen to be linked together.
The environmental risks that are rising, but not rising as dramatically as the societal risks, are those of Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation and Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, which are also linked together.
Four of the 10 risks are decreasing in either likelihood, impact, or both. Concerns about conflicts between states does not seem to be as much on the radar as conflicts within countries.
The next post will cover those risks which concern the respondents of the Global Risk Perceptions Survey the most over the medium term (18 months) versus those thar of more of concern over the long-term (10 years).
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