Global Risk Report 2016: Medium- and Long-Term Risks


1.  INTRODUCTION

In my previous posts on the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report 2016, I have concentrated on

  • the methodology of the report (corresponding to the Plan Risk Management process of Project Management),
  • the identification of risks (corresponding to the Identify Risks process of Project Management)
  • the qualitative analysis of risks (corresponding to the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process of Project Management)
  • the identification of regional risk trends
  • the risks that have gone changed the most since the last Global Risk Report

The next topic I went to get to are those risks which are the top 5 global risk of highest concern in the medium-term (18 months)  in the long-term (10 years).

2.   Top 5 Global Risks of Highest Concern–Medium-term vs. Long-term

Based on the results of the Global Risks Perception Survey, here are the five global risks whom the highest percentage of respondents listed as being of the highest concern:

# Medium-Term (18 months) Long-Term (10 years)
1.  Large-scale involuntary migration: 52.0% (SOCIETAL) Water crises:  39.8% (SOCIETAL)
2. State collapse or crisis :  27.9%(GEOPOLITICAL) Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation:  36.7% (ENVIRONMENTAL)
3. Interstate conflict:  26.3% (GEOPOLITICAL) Extreme weather events:  26.5% (ENVIRONMENTAL)
4. Unemployment or underemployment:  26.0% (ECONOMIC) Food crises:  25.2%  (SOCIETAL)
5. Failure of national governance:  25.2% (GEOPOLITICAL) Profound social instability:  25.3%  (SOCIETAL)

Here are some things to notice about these risks.

Many of the risks in the medium-term were close in terms of the percentage of respondents who felt they were of the highest concern, but one stands out:  large-scale involuntary was felt by the majority of respondents as being of highest concern in the medium-term of the next 18 months.

Although geopolitical risks were the predominant concern over the next 18 months, the environmental risks and the societal risks they engender were felt by most respondents to be the global risks of highest concern over the longer term

For that reason, the next post will cover what the Global Risk Report has to say about the Paris Agreement, which can be considered as a risk response to the long-term  environmental risk mentioned above, especially Risk #2, Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

 

 

 

 

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