Why Nations Fail–A Meditation on #Tahrir Square


Now that I’ve got a little breathing room during my travels, as I approach my last stop before my final destination of Chicago, I have had a chance to crack open a book I have wanted to read for some time.

Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, by Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson, is about economic inequality and its origins. The preface references the events of Tahrir Square in Egypt on February 11, 2011 as Hosni Mubarak was thrown out of power.

Why was Egypt mired in poverty, which was the ostensible cause of their discontent? The Egyptians themselves recognized that the underlying cause of their economic problems was a lack of political rights denied them by an ineffective and corrupt state whose power was monopolized by a narrow elite.

The three conventional explanations for Egypt’s poverty are as follows.

1. Geography
This is Jared Diamond’s position in Guns, Germs, and Steel, a form of geographical determinism.

2. Culture
This is the view that Egyptians lack cultural traits or are hampered by religious views that are inconsistent with the work ethic required for economic success. Although the authors do not say outright that this type of explanation is Orientalist in outlook, I have no such compunction against saying so.

3. Policy
Most economic and policy pundits think that the rulers of Egypt were just following bad advice. The unexpressed assumption in this view is that prosperity would follow if only the leaders would listen to them.

The authors’ view is that the three theories taken as conventional wisdom are all wrong, and that the Egyptian people got it right. Not only were they right about Egypt’s rulers, but their insights can be extended throughout the world and throughout history.

It is vital to understand the lesson the Egyptian people have learned, at great personal cost, if we are to face a world in the 21st century that is ruled for the benefit of the ordinary people, and not just for the elite.

This may sound radical to some, but I of a different opinion. Such an economically and politically equal world would be more stable and more capable of handling exogenous shocks like those poses by global warming than a world already internally weakened through inequality. This it is in my opinion the more conservative option. The more radical option would be to let inequality in this country and around the world fester, because that path poses a higher risk of revolution.

So let us heed the voice of the Egyptian people–they given us a warning, for all those that have ears to hear.

California-Chicago Travel Playlist


On my current car trip from LA to Chicago, one of the things I wanted to make sure to maintain was my sanity.

I thought it would be interesting to list all of those recordings I brought with me in order to pass the time of driving for days on end.

1. The Hobbit soundtrack
I brought this because it was the last movie I saw in LA, and the subtitle “An Unexpected Journey” seemed very apropos given my decision to move to Chicago to help my father recuperate after his recent hospitalization.

2. Lord of the Rings soundtrack
After The Hobbit, I thought I might as well go full Tolkien and listen to the soundtrack from all 3 movies. The mountainous terrain of Colorado was the perfect backdrop to listen to music from Middle Earth.

3. Cloud Atlas soundtrack
This is the next to last movie I saw in LA. It has resonance for me because it deals with life-altering decisions that the characters in various times take, and how the effects of those decisions ripple through time. Having just made a life-altering decision myself, I could definitely relate.

4. FSI Standard Chinese–Module 3: Directions
I take these language recordings because I constantly practice the languages I’m studying so my skills don’t fade.

5. Joseph Campbell lecture series: Western Quest
In this 5-hour lecture series, Joseph Campbell relates the fundamental mythologies of the West in the form of the Arthurian legends. Fascinating as mythology, history, and Joe is an excellent storyteller to boot.

6. Eckherdt Tolle–A New Earth
In this audio book the author shows how spiritual evolution starts with the diminishment of ego. Oh, is that all, you may ask. It’s harder than it sounds, but the author gives advice on how to go about it.

7. Classical Music
I don’t have the exact title of the compilation series of CDs of these classics of classical music, but it is standard fare in my “sanity maintenance” collection.

These recordings I hope give you an idea of my interests. I can’t recommend them to you–you have to make your own list. But whatever you choose, make sure some of it engages your mind as well as your spirit!

Project Management and the Art of Moving


One of the common examples of projects given to those who are learning about project management is that of organizing a move.

Well, I am in the midst of moving from one city to another, and I can tell you that using project management tools has made the move one of the smoothest in my memory of various moves I have done in my life.

What has it done to help me in practical terms? By planning the move one month out, I could space out the various tasks to be completed to allow myself enough time to take care of winding down the volunteer projects I was involved with for the Project Management Institute of Orange County. I even scheduled in some relaxation time so I could de-stress from all the preparations.

I added an extra day of slack in the travel schedule for risk management, and it came in handy–the mini-storage space I rented was closed for Easter, which put me a day behind schedule leaving town. But since I added a day of slack in my travel plans, I’ll get there on time because of my project management habit of thinking out contingency plans.

Some people think that all that planning might make you lose your spontaneity, but I think that’s not the case. Because I’ve planned ahead and prepared for various contingencies, I actually am more relaxed and living in the moment, because part of my mind that used to be wondering in the background “now did I think of this or that” is silent–because I now have a plan.

So project management can not only help you in the practical aspects of your daily life, but it can also help you enjoy it more!

California vs. New York Culture


As I leave California to live in Chicago, I find myself both literally and figuratively looking at California in the rear view mirror.

How does the culture of California differ from the last place I Iived, in New York? For someone who was immersed in world culture in New York, coming to the seemingly more homogeneous California was a bit of a letdown at first.

However, as I got to take different language classes, that and just the contact of daily living in Los Angeles introduced me into several expat and immigrant communities.

A decade later, I can say that New York is still somewhat more international than Los Angeles, but not by very much. I experienced New York as one big island of international culture, and Los Angeles as several small islands of international culture surrounded by the mainstream US culture in which they were embedded.

With the exception of Spanish which was ubiquitous, you could find any language community you wanted–but unlike in New York City, you had to actively look for it.

PMI-OC PMP/CAPM Workshop–Winter Session concluded, Spring Session to start


The Project Management Institute of Orange County in California puts on a PMP/CAPM workshop three times a year.

I took the workshop last year in the Spring Session 2012, and decided after I passed the CAPM exam in October to volunteer to help put on the workshop for the Winter Session 2013.

It was rewarding work because besides putting on the workshop, the members of the PMP/CAPM Workshop Committee is also charged with improving it by improving the quality of the instruction, the study materials, and the level of support we give to the students as they prepare for the exam.

Even now as the Winter Session has concluded, we are gearing up for the Spring Session which starts at the end of this month.   But that challenge of putting on a workshop so soon after concluding the last one pales in comparison to our larger challenge of making sure that the Fall Session of the workshop is geared up for the 5th Edition of the PMBOK Guide.

That is why I am putting so much effort into going through the Guide because I need to be able to help get the instructors up to speed, to update the study materials, and to be prepared to help the students study for a totally new exam which starts July 31st of this year.

But it is worth it, because the challenge of getting a PMP seems to grow with each passing year as PMI increases the requirements.   For that reason, more and more people are realizing as I did that they are not eligible for the PMP and must take the CAPM instead.    That is one of the reasons why we offered a combined PMP/CAPM workshop for the Winter Session 2013.   Because of the increasing challenge, I want those who are trying to aim for that certification to know that they are not going it alone:   PMI-OC is there to help them achieve it!

 

5th Edition PMBOK® Guide—Chapter 6: Precedence Diagramming Method, Leads and Lags


1. Introduction

The tools & techniques for the process 6.3 Sequence Activities are given in the following summary chart.

6.3 SEQUENCE ACTIVITES
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
1. Precedence diagramming method (PDM) Used to construct a schedule model in which activities are represented by nodes and are linked to show the sequence in which they are performed.
2. Dependency determination Dependencies between activities are characterized by various attributes: mandatory vs. discretionary, internal vs. external
3. Leads and lags A lead is the amount of time a successor activity can be advanced with respect to a predecessor activity. A lag is the amount of time a successor activity can be delayed with respect to a predecessor activity.

In the last post, I discussed the technique of dependency determination. In this post, I will discuss the first tool, precedence diagramming method, and the third technique, leads and lags.

I will use a typical PMP exam question involving this tool and technique in order to illustrate their use.

2. Precedence Diagramming Method

Description

Note

FS Successor activity cannot start until predecessor activity has finished. Activities are in series—most common relationship.
FF Successor activity cannot finish until predecessor activity is finished. Activities are in parallel—next most common relationship.
SS Successor activity cannot start until predecessor activity has started. Activities are in parallel—next common relationship.
SF Successor activity cannot finish until predecessor activity has started. Least common relationship

Notice that in each four of these relationships, the first letter refers to the predecessor activity and the second letter refers to the successor relationship.

3. Leads and Lags

Definition

Lead Amount of time whereby a successor activity can be advanced with respect to a predecessor activity.
Lag Amount of time whereby a successor activity can be delayed with respect to a predecessor activity.

To see how leads and lags are represented in the Precedence Diagramming Method, let us take a typical exam question.

4. Exam question example

Activity 1 has a duration of 20 days, Activity 2 of 10 days, Activity 3 of 5 days and Activity 4 of 6 days. What is the minimum total duration between the Milestones A and B?

The relationship between the activities is

Predecessor Successor Relationship
Milestone A Activity 1 FS
Activity 1 Activity 2 FS
Activity 2 Activity 3 FF-2
Activity 3 Activity 4 FS+3
Activity 4 Milestone B FS

Now let’s answer the question.

Step 1. Let’s define milestone A as starting on day 0. A milestone has 0 days duration BY DEFINITION so it finishes on day 0.

Activity Starts Finishes
Milestone A 0 0
Activity 1
Activity 2
Activity 3
Activity 4

Step 2.

Activity 1 starts at 0 and it is given in the question that it has a duration of 20 days, so it finishes on day 20.

Activity Starts Finishes
Milestone A 0 0
Activity 1 0 20
Activity 2
Activity 3
Activity 4

Step 3.

When does activity 2 start? The relationship between activity 1 and activity 2 is given as “FS“, which means that Activity 2 (the successor activity) starts IMMEDIATELY after Activity 1 (the predecessor) is finished, so it starts on day 20 as well. Since it is given to have a duration of 10 days in the question, it finishes on day 20 + 10 = 30.

Activity Starts Finishes
Milestone A 0 0
Activity 1 0 20
Activity 2 20 30
Activity 3
Activity 4

Step 4.

When does Activity 3 start?    The relationship between Activity 2 and activity 3 is given as”FF-2″, so you can’t figure out directly when it starts like you could for Activity 2 which used FS.   However, since you are given the relationship as being “FF-2″, it means you can figure out that Activity 3 finishes 2 days BEFORE Activity 2 finishes.   Since Activity 2 finishes on day 30 (see beginning of paragraph for reference), Activity 3 finishes on day 30 – 2 = 28.   And since Activity 3 is given as having 5 days in duration, it must begin on day 28 – 5= 23.

By the way, the fact that the finish of activity 3 is advanced 2 days with respect to the finish of activity 2 means that this is an example of a lead.

Activity Starts Finishes
Milestone A 0 0
Activity 1 0 20
Activity 2 20 30
Activity 3 23 28
Activity 4

Step 5.

When does Activity 4 begin?   The relationship between Activity 3 and Activity 4 is given as “FS + 3“, meaning that Activity 4 starts 3 days AFTER activity 3 ends.   Since activity 3 ends on day 28, activity 4 begins on day 28 + 3 = 31.   When does activity 4 end?   Since the duration of activity 4 is given in the question as 6 days, the answer is 31 + 6 = 37 days.

Activity Starts Finishes
Milestone A 0 0
Activity 1 0 20
Activity 2 20 30
Activity 3 23 28
Activity 4 31 37

By the way, the fact that the start of activity 4 is delayed 3 days with respect to the finish of activity 3 is an example of a lag.

I hope that this example has not only illustrated the Precedence Diagramming Method, but has also demonstrated an example of how to use a lead and lag in this method.

The next week I am on a trip by car to move from Los Angeles to Chicago, so I will be blogging about other topics than project management for the next week until I get settled in the Chicago area. Thank you for your patience!

5th Edition PMBOK® Guide—Chapter 6: Dependency Determination


1. Introduction

The last post discussed the time management process 6.3 Sequence Activities. The three tools & techniques of that process are listed below.

6.3 SEQUENCE ACTIVITIES
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
1. Precedence diagramming method (PDM) Used to construct a schedule model in which activities are represented by nodes and are linked to show the sequence in which they are performed.
2. Dependency determination Dependencies between activities are characterized by various attributes: mandatory vs. discretionary, internal vs. external
3. Leads and lags A lead is the amount of time a successor activity can be advanced with respect to a predecessor activity. A lag is the amount of time a successor activity can be delayed with respect to a predecessor activity.

The first one is a tool, the second and third are techniques. Must one activity done before another? If so, must it be complete before another one can be started? To answer questions like these, the second technique of dependency determination is used. This determines the nature of the dependency between any two activities, and is the subject of this post.

2. Types of Dependencies

Category Dependency Explanation
Mandatory vs. Discretionary Mandatory

(hard logic)

Involve

  • physical limitations
  • contractual or legal obligations
Discretionary

(soft logic)

 

Based on knowledge of best practices
External vs.

Internal

External Outside of project team’s control, based on relationship of project activities and activities outside project
Internal Within project team’s control, based on relationship between project activities

The reason for the classification into types of dependencies is that the mandatory and external types of dependencies cannot be changed or changed easily. The discretionary and internal types of dependencies can be changed more readily and therefore those activities that have these types of dependencies will be the ones the project manager should go to first if there is a necessity for crashing or fast-tracking in order to compress the schedule.

The next post will discuss the leads and lags technique, which is the third technique of those used in the process 6.3 Sequence Activities.

5th Edition PMBOK® Guide—Chapter 6: Process 6.3 Sequence Activities


1. Introduction

Once the project activities have been identified in process 6.2 Define Activities, the next planning process 6.3 Sequence Activities identifies and documents the relationships among the project activities.

Which need to be done first? Which ones can be done in parallel? By analyzing this logically, you can create a logical sequence of work which will accomplish the work of the project with the greatest amount of efficiency given the other project constraints.

The following is a summary of the inputs, tools and techniques, and outputs used in the process.

6.3 SEQUENCE ACTIVITIES
INPUTS
1. Schedule Management Plan Identifies the scheduling method and tool to be used.
2. Activity List Includes all scheduled activities on the project. This is an output of process 6.2 Define Activities
3. Activity Attributes Describes the predecessor and successor activities, as well as possible leads and lags, associated with each activity. This is an output of process 6.2 Define Activities.
4. Milestone List Gives specific dates for any milestones. This is an output of process 6.2 Define Activities.
5. Project scope statement The product scope description includes product characteristics which may affect activity sequencing. Project deliverables, constraints, and assumptions may also affect activity sequencing.
6. EEFs
  • Government and industry standards
  • Project Management Information System
  • Scheduling tool
  • Company work authorization systems
7. OPAs
  • Project files
  • Policies, procedures and guidelines, templates used with scheduling methodology
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
1. Precedence diagramming method (PDM) Used to construct a schedule model in which activities are represented by nodes and are linked to show the sequence in which they are performed.
2. Dependency determination Dependencies between activities are characterized by various attributes: mandatory vs. discretionary, internal vs. external
3. Leads and lags A lead is the amount of time a successor activity can be advanced with respect to a predecessor activity. A lag is the amount of time a successor activity can be delayed with respect to a predecessor activity.
OUTPUTS
1. Project schedule network diagrams A graphical representation of the logical relationships (also known as dependencies) among the project schedule activities.
2. Project documents updates
  • Activity lists
  • Activity attributes
  • Milestone list
  • Risk register

2. Inputs

The scheduling methodology and tools to be used are specified in the Schedule Management Plan (the output of 6.1 Plan Schedule Management). The activity list, activity attributes, and the milestone list which were the outputs of the previous process 6.2 Define Activities are now the inputs to this process. Some of the project constraints and assumptions from the project scope statement may be useful in helping analyze the logical relationships or dependencies between the various activities.

3. Tools & Techniques

The Precedence Diagramming Method is a tool used to represent activities by nodes (or boxes) which are then linked to show the sequence in which they are to be performed. Information from the project constraints and assumptions can help in the analysis of the dependencies among the various activities, as well as the leads and lags required between predecessor and successor activities.

4. Outputs

The Precedence Diagramming Method has an output a project schedule network diagram which will show the sequence in which all the activities are to be performed. If any of the attributes of the activities (particularly dependencies, as well as leads and lags) are altered as a result of the detailed analysis done in this process, those are updated. Activity lists, milestone lists, and risk registers may add details as well.

Before going on to the next process, I will take the next two posts to describe in more detail both the tool (Precedence Diagramming Method) and the techniques (Dependency Determination and Leads and Lags) used in this process.

5th Edition PMBOK® Guide—Chapter 6: Process 6.2 Define Activities


1. Introduction

The define activities process uses the process of decomposition to take the work packages identified in the WBS which are nouns, and to identify the activities which are verbs required in order to complete them.

It is therefore the bridge between the planning involved in scope management, and the planning involved in time or schedule management.

The following contains an overview of the inputs, tools & techniques, and outputs related to this process, as listed in the PMBOK® Guide.

6.2 DEFINE ACTIVITIES
INPUTS
1. Schedule Management Plan A key input from the plan is the prescribed level of detail necessary to do the work which would come from the following elements:

  • Units of Measure
2. Scope Baseline Besides the WBS, you would need the following elements from the project scope statement:

  • Constraints
  • Assumptions
3. EEFs
  • Organizational structures and culture
  • Published commercial information from commercial databases
  • Project Management Information System
4. OPAs
  • Lessons learned from previous projects
  • Standardized processes for creating activity list
  • Templates containing activity list from previous projects
  • Activity-planning policies, procedures, guidelines, including scheduling methodology
TOOLS & TECHNIQUES
1. Decomposition Technique for dividing and subdividing project scope and project deliverables into smaller, more manageable parts.
2. Rolling Wave Planning Also known as progressive elaboration. Work in the near term is planned in detail, whereas work in the future is planned at a higher level.
3. Expert Judgment Project team members and other experts can provide expertise in defining activities.
OUTPUTS
1. Activity List Includes all scheduled activities on the project.
2. Activity Attributes Extends the description of each activity by having multiple components associated with each activity such as:

  • predecessor and successor activities
  • leads and lags
  • resource requirements, and constraints (including imposed deadlines) and assumptions.
3. Milestone List Lists all milestones and identifies them as:

  • mandatory (specified by contract)
  • optional (based on historical information)

2. Inputs

As inputs, the basic parameters regarding units of measure are needed from the schedule management plan. Then the WBS is required, because the define activities process is based on further decomposing the work packages contained in the WBS into activities. The EEFs and OPAs give the background information and tools required to do the process.

3. Tools & Techniques

For tools and techniques, the decomposition process is the main one, and since it is the same technique as used in the scope management process 5.4 Create WBS, the schedule management process 6.2 Define Activities can be profitably done in conjunction with that other process.

The rolling wave technique, also known as progressive elaboration, can be used in several situations.

  • very large projects or projects that are totally new
  • projects where you need to start the work of executing the project before you have all of the planning 100% complete
  • projects where the work to be done in the final stages of the project depends on the work to be done in the initial stages of the project and cannot be planned completely until this work is complete

Those work packages which represent work to be done in the near future are completely broken down into activities, whereas the work to be done at later stages in the project are broken down only to a certain level, called planning packages. These are then progressively elaborated as the time gets closer to their execution.

Expert judgment is always a useful technique when dealing with something as complex as the creation of a project schedule. The expertise comes from those who have done this type of activity planning before, either on other projects or preferably on projects that were similar to the one the organization is doing now.

4. Outputs

The activity lists and activity attributes are parallel to the WBS and WBS dictionary in that the former contains an organized list, and the latter contains the information necessary regarding those items in the list to carry on the following planning processes.

Milestones are important because they are used to coordinate internally on the project and also externally, between the organization and the supplier and/or customer.

The next process in schedule management is 6.3 Sequence Activities, and that is discussed in the next post.

5th Edition PMBOK® Guide—Chapter 6: Schedule Management Plan


1. Introduction

The output of the first planning process in the Time Management Knowledge Area, Process 6.1 Plan Schedule Management is, unsurprisingly, the Schedule Management Plan.

What is surprising is that before the 5th Edition PMBOK® Guide, there was no time management process which covered the creation of this plan. It was considered to be done as part of the Integration Management knowledge area under the Develop Project Management Plan process. But somewhere along the line, those reviewing the PMBOK® Guide must have realized that the Project Management Plan integrates the existing subsidiary plans, all of which are encountered for in separate processes EXCEPT for those involving the three major triple constraints on a project: scope, time, cost.

So in the 5th Edition, they went and added in processes that created management plans in these three areas. It’s not that these plans were never created before, it’s just that now they have processes that are explicitly devoted to creating them.

2. Elements of Schedule Management Plan

The Schedule Management Plan sets up the framework for all of the other time management processes. So let’s look at the elements of the Schedule Management Plan and see what processes they are related to.

Element of Plan Description of Element
1. Organizational procedures links WBS is used as framework in order to provide consistency with estimates. 6.2 Define Activities
2. Project Model Schedule Development Specifies scheduling methodology and scheduling tool to be used. 6.3 Sequence Activities 6.6 Develop Schedule
3. Units of measure For each resource, units are defined. 6.4 Estimate Activity Resources
4. Level of accuracy Acceptable range of accuracy of activity duration estimates. 6.5 Estimate Activity Durations
5. Project schedule model maintenance Process used to update status and record progress. 6.7 Control Schedule
6. Control thresholds Amount of variance in schedule performance allowed before action is taken. 6.7 Control Schedule
7. Rules of performance measurement Earned value measurement (EVM) rules are set. 6.7 Control Schedule
8. Reporting formats Formats, frequency of schedule progress reports. 6.7 Control Schedule
9. Process descriptions Descriptions of each schedule management process. ALL

The idea is that the tools and techniques used in the developing of the schedule are specified, as well as the details regarding the units involved with each of the resources. Also the descriptions of the schedule management processes are included if one wants to work on improving them at some stage of the project. Regarding the estimates, you need to specify their level of accuracy (i.e., + or – 10%).

Finally, once the schedule baseline has been established, then you need to set up rules so that when you are actually doing the project, you can periodically take a measurement of the progress on your project with reference to that baseline. Then if the variance where you actually are and where you are supposed to be at any given point on the project gets to be above a pre-defined threshold, you need to set up what actions you will take in order to make sure the project gets back on track.

These policies, procedures, and guidelines that are followed in all of the other processes are listed up here in the Schedule Management Plan

The next post will deal with the next planning process, that of 6.2 Define Activities.